At The Cash: The best way to Handle Your Information & Information Movement (August 13, 2025)
We reside in an age of limitless information and spin. We depend on information and information releases, however it’s very easy to get tripped up by all of it. How ought to traders handle this firehose of numbers?
Full transcript beneath.
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About this week’s visitor:
Michael Hiltzik covers enterprise for the Los Angeles Instances, is a two-time winner of the Gerald Loeb Award and has authored quite a few books on enterprise.
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TRANSCRIPT:
Notice: This was recorded in July 2025, previous to President Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
Barry Ritholtz: Wall Road depends on information: Financial releases, quarterly earnings efficiency comparisons, however it’s very easy to get tripped up by all of this math. How ought to traders handle this hearth hose of numbers to assist us navigate this firehose of numbers?
Let’s herald pulled shock profitable reporter, Michael Hiltzik. He covers enterprise for the Los Angeles Instances. He’s a two-time winner of the Gerald Loeb Award and has authored quite a few books on enterprise.
Michael, let’s simply begin with the fundamentals. How do you handle this limitless torrent of knowledge that comes our method?
Michael Hiltzik: That’s a very good query. Largely, I attempt to ignore. Most of it, and I curate what I take advantage of and what I depend on.
And mainly the best way I work is I begin with a subject that I wish to discover, a topic I wish to discover, after which I am going get your hands on the info, uh, that I would like. And that method, I’m not affected. I imply, there are some sources who, uh, you recognize, come throughout my emails usually that I’ll pay some consideration to.
However most of it, I, I don’t, and I do know the place to go more often than not for, for what I would like.
Barry Ritholtz: So let’s speak about that. For those who’re going to be writing about or researching a selected topic, what sources of financial information do you depend on, and what sources do you discover troublesome and greatest ignored?
Michael Hiltzik: Effectively, I believe if I’m writing about, you recognize, one thing that touches on macroeconomics or, uh, uh, home economics, I believe you’ll be able to’t do higher than the BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Bureau of Financial Evaluation. And so far they haven’t been, uh, undermined. Perhaps somewhat bit, however not an excessive amount of by Trump. So their information is admittedly nonetheless dependable.
I additionally go to Fred, that’s the service from the St. Louis Fed that may scale back plenty of this, of the, of the info from BLS and BEA to, uh, graphical kind. And I’ve revealed Fred Charts if there’s a month that passes with out it that’s uncommon.
Barry Ritholtz: So how do you, I depend on these. How do you assess the credibility and accuracy of any supply? Clearly, BLS and BEA and Fred have a really lengthy observe file, however what components do you contemplate if you’re taking a look at a supply of financial information?
Barry Ritholtz: Michael Hiltzik: I have a look at these sources, the best way I have a look at any sources, I search for consistency.
My father was a CPA and he used to say, “Examine the arithmetic.”
And I do this as a result of, uh, you recognize, over time or many years that I’ve been writing about enterprise and finance, I search for outliers within the information. Once I see one thing like that, it warrants additional checking and skepticism, truly. I search for developments to be constant. I search for the info to be coherent, uh, and cohesive and mainly, you recognize, I, if I can I verify one supply towards the opposite after which, attempt to see if doing that turns up some flaw or flaws within the. Within the print,
Barry Ritholtz: So that you talked about, verify the mathematics. Are there every other widespread information high quality points that you just encounter that traders ought to pay attention to?
Michael Hiltzik: There’s some constant. Legal guidelines or errors or errors that, that I discover sometimes in, uh, information experiences that, that use the, these information, uh, after which strive to attract conclusions. I believe each most likely really feel that information that’s produced with out an inflation deflator or with out an acknowledgement, significantly if it’s a development line one thing that I attempt to repair if I can, however, actually that’s a context that’s, is constantly missing in experiences of the info. Um
Once I’m studying a report of a, of an financial launch you recognize, in, in nearly any newspaper. I’ll at all times strive to return to the unique print, not depend on someone’s interpretation.
I’ve simply seen interpretations of knowledge, simply, uh. Be all over, significantly if we’re speaking about authorities packages that depend on monetary statistics like social safety, uh, Medicare, Obamacare, I simply, see so many issues in reporting on these packages. As a result of reporters don’t do the mathematics, uh, or they don’t do their homework or they, they arrive at these packages by means of a political perspective that mainly permits them to disregard what’s actually taking place.
Barry Ritholtz: So that you talked about ensuring the info is inflation-adjusted. You and I’ve spoken about seasonality and, and the way usually that appears to journey up shoppers of knowledge. What different issues are inclined to come up if you see a, a generally used? Information supply or information collection.
Michael Hiltzik: Effectively, these are the large, these are the large ones. you recognize, if I’m taking a look at a chart, if it’s a trendline chart and it doesn’t go to zero, so that you just don’t actually know, you’ll be able to’t actually inform, you recognize, if a change is important or if it’s, uh, an artifact of huge numbers or small numbers, I wish to be suspicious about that.
We see these flaws in reporting all over, the foremost newspapers, the wire companies, cable information, they’re mainly winging it and so they’re utilizing, uh, information, they’re utilizing numbers that they get. They’re misinterpreting them, typically wilds me.
Barry Ritholtz: You, you talked about Fred, which I actually consider as a web-based software program instrument that depicts information collection in a graph or a picture. Another software program or instruments that you just discover helpful?
Michael Hiltzik: On occasion, at occasions we’ve used FactSet. We’ve used Y-charts. (I’m fairly certain that we’re not even subscribers to them anymore). However we use them, you recognize, for uncooked information, and, graphical shows. I discover Yahoo Finance is nearly as good as, as anything. you recognize, after I’m utilizing these, these sources, I do wanna return and double verify, uh, the numbers simply to make it possible for what, what I’m utilizing, uh, uh, are, are the figures that had been produced initially.
Barry Ritholtz: What about commerce organizations? I recall continuously, particularly in the course of the monetary disaster, being irritated by plenty of the spin from the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors who’re the unique supply of plenty of housing gross sales information.
Michael Hiltzik: I believe you’re completely proper about that. I imply, if I would like to show to an trade supply or a lobbying group or what have you ever, just like the NAM, the franchisees have one thing and so they all produce figures.
If I’m in search of a determine that they produce, I imply, if I wish to say, you recognize, the Nationwide Affiliation of Producers says this, I’ll use it. However with the caveat that that. That’s who they’re. You’ll be able to’t at all times belief ’em. Uh, they’re nearly at all times speaking their ebook, so to talk, and we have now to maintain that in thoughts and it’s gotta be mirrored in what I write as properly.
A few of these outfits are sources that, that I depend on to debunk, and it’s at all times a very good column if I can say, “look, right here’s what these guys stated, and right here’s how they received the numbers unsuitable, and right here’s why. They most likely intentionally received the numbers unsuitable.”
Barry Ritholtz: What about assume tanks? They publish analytical information continuously, however I’d hardly contemplate them goal or disinterested events.
Michael Hiltzik: Yeah, I agree. Some are higher than others. I’ll quote with out an excessive amount of concern. The Peterson Institute of Worldwide Economics I discover constantly fairly good.
For commerce, uh, points, commerce figures, commerce commentary. there’s one other Peterson funded, uh, assume tank, the, uh, fee for the, uh, accountable federal price range that mm-hmm. I, I imply, typically I, I discover them helpful. Generally their, uh, evaluation is so contaminated by, uh, ideology or partisanship that, um.
You, I, I’ve to stroll again what I see. I’ve to form of what, you recognize, recalculate what, what they’ve used.
Barry Ritholtz: So that you had a column just lately on Tesla. What about public corporations? How will we consider issues like not simply earnings, however ahead steering and all types of typically it’s somewhat little bit of glad speak about what’s coming sooner or later.
Michael Hiltzik: Effectively, I believe, you recognize, if we’re, uh, you recognize, to the extent they’re placing out disclosed financials, topic to SEC oversight, they’re, that’s what it’s. I can say that is what they’ve disclosed, that is what they’ve stated.
Ahead steering to me is mainly, attempting to shoehorn a long-term perspective right into a snapshot. It’s very uncommon, uncommon that it’s, helpful in any respect. And it, in fact, it additionally is dependent upon who’s doing the ahead steering.
After we had Elon Musk, uh, you recognize, ship a you recognize, monetary Q&A simply final evening, I’m undecided. I’m undecided that any of that, uh, uh, is helpful. Uh, any greater than something he says is helpful. And it was, it was very Muskian, “We’re gonna have have robots cleansing our home and care of our youngsters by the tip of subsequent 12 months.
, I imply, his timelines are at all times suspect, and others are an organization that’s in bother. Um. You wish to be you recognize, very cautious about, you recognize, what they’re saying. you recognize, an organization that’s revising its ahead steering or dropping its ahead steering. I, I believe everyone knows these are pink flags.
Barry Ritholtz: I’ve been ready for totally self-driving automobiles now for 10 years and it’s at all times two years away.
So let me ask a, a barely. Offbeat query. early in my profession, there was this whole group of conspiracy theorists who believed that the BLS was cooking the info that you just couldn’t belief BEA, that the entire authorities sources of data had been partisan and biased and fully unreliable.
That hasn’t been my expertise, however, however what’s your expertise like?
Michael Hiltzik: Effectively, no, it hasn’t been my expertise. And, uh, look, the, you recognize, the, the, the info, the statistics that come out of these, uh, companies, uh, uh, uh, mainly, you recognize, these are are Time-Pattern prints primarily, and so they’re the benchmarks.
I believe we have now to depend on them as, as benchmarks. And we all know that, uh, BLS and BEA, I believe periodically revise their methodology, however they’re clear about it. And, uh, you recognize, so long as we acknowledge that there’s a break in, um. Within the trendline, then, I believe we will cope with it safely.
However you recognize, politicians are at all times form of attacking these sources when the, the, the numbers that they produce, you recognize, are inimical to their, their partisan objectives. And, you recognize, we have now to get used to it. And we’re actually seeing that now. I believe we’ll see it extra, you recognize, we’re gonna see an assault on Fed information simply intensifying.
Barry Ritholtz: What are the opposite pitfalls that traders ought to pay attention to with regards to financial information?
Michael Hiltzik: Effectively, I believe traders at all times must be delicate to the supply, uh, of the info they’re counting on. They must be, uh, cautious about form of second order or third order interpretations of knowledge.
The info actually on a macroeconomic or company degree is at all times accessible, however I sympathize with traders who simply don’t have the time to, to return and look. I believe projections of market exercise. These are, you recognize, by no means of nice worth. , projections are at all times good and correct, proper as much as the purpose that they’re not so, you recognize, and form of bigger, bigger points, you recognize, after I, after I hear someone speaking about, properly, uh, liquidity is gonna drive the market or one thing like that, I don’t actually put a lot belief for reliance in that.
Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, traders who need to study extra from financial information have to go to the unique sources. Prioritize. Ensure you are conscious of issues like inflation adjusting and seasonal changes. Be cautious about commerce organizations and assume tanks. Not all of them are goal.
The identical is true about ahead steering from corporations, public corporations, about what they see sooner or later. And simply usually use widespread sense with regards to analyzing the limitless fireplace hose of financial information.
I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to On the Cash On Bloomberg.
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